let’s talk about the analytics of the bottom of the 13th situation: runner on 2nd and 0 outs with a run expectancy of 1 run is ~35% roberts pinch hits rojas for hernandez to bunt after a successful bunt, there’s a runner on 3rd with 1 out. that’s a run expectancy of ~49% analytically, this looks sound. note that run expectancy would tell you this was a bad choice but in extras, we don’t factor in the probability of multiple runs which run expectancy does we’re just factoring in the dodgers scoring the winning run so the raw analytics tell us this was a good decision by roberts but hernandez is one of the better dodger hitters this postseason (and overall in the postseason), is it really worth pinch hitting rojas for him? well, roberts also pinch hit pages for call who hit .257 as a part-time player with a .286 avg against lefties in the regular season again, not a terrible decision and it comes down to whether you want hernandez (a solid playoff performer) with a runner on 2nd or call (platoon advantage) with a runner on 3rd hindsight, you might want hernandez up since call pops out and ohtani/betts get intentionally walked and freeman flies out. but overall, analytical sound reasoning
